Category Archives: nationhood

What exactly does it mean to be Kenyan?

Behold, how good and pleasant it is for brethren to dwell together in unity! The Psalmist

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File photo showing Ghana’s past presidents together. Credits citifmonline.com

Kenya’s 2017 election pitting Raila Amolo Odinga as challenger to HE Uhuru Kenyatta’s incumbency has been billed as a 2-horse race between two corrupt parties. While this may be true on some level, I hereby opine for time and eternity that there are far deeper concerns at play than corruption. This is not to say that corruption is not an issue. Rather this is to say that corruption is a secondary issue. What is at stake is the very concept of Kenya as a nation and a going concern.

The Ganges’ Jewels and Jinja

The state of Kenya formed as a secondary outcome of geo-political chess. The British Empire’s crown jewel was India from which she derived spices, textiles and jewels. The fastest route from Brittania to India was through the Suez Canal. Whoever controlled the Suez Canal controlled India. Egypt controlled the Suez. Whoever controlled the Nile controlled Egypt. Hence the control of the Nile was of utmost importance to the preservation of the British Empire’s crown jewel. It so happens that the origin of the Nile is in Jinja, Uganda; which is Kenya’s immediate neighbour to our West. Hence a direct logical line of thought can be drawn from the riches of the Ganges to Jinja in Uganda. The physical manifestation of that line happened to be the railway line from the port of Mombasa in Kenya to Kampala which was to later become the capital of Uganda.

Building the Mombasa-Kampala railway was a long, tedious and arduous process. And as they say, the journey is the destination. Some of the builders stopped and smelled the roses and in so doing, fell in love with these environs. The end result of this process was that large swathes of indigenous Kenyan land ended up occupied by our former colonialists. A by-product of this was the so called Happy Valley set. Eventually the railway arrived in Kisumu and from then onwards to Kampala. But history could not be reversed. Our colonialists’ love affair with Kenyan vistas and wildlife left an indelible mark whose result was the creation was the British Protectorate of East Africa.

In this manner, what began as a geo-political game to gain mastery of India, resulted in the formation of a transport corridor upon whose heels followed the creation of a colony which would later come to be known as Kenya. This is how the state of Kenya was formed; as a geographic area on either side of a railway. This geographical area contains tribes and communities within it. This was the Kenyan state that gained independence, and could have turned into a nation of brothers; but has severally failed to rise to meet the defining challenges that have assailed it.

Flashforward to today. Our 2017 election is pitting the son of Kenya’s first president against the son of Kenya’s first vice-president. The fact that 50 years of intervening history have brought us to this juncture is a failure of both our leaders as well as a our parents’ generation.

Various facts are both incidental and causative to this emergence of ethnicity which include more geopolitical chess, political repression, assassinations and the raw need for political mobilisation given the context. But the point remains that Kenya in 1963 was not a tribal country. Kenya in AD 2017 is. Tribalism and ethnicity need not be a negative thing. Our diversity can and should be appreciated. With that covered, let us cover a little bit of sociology.

States, Nations and Identity

For starters some definitions. A state is defined as a patch of land with sovereign governance. A nation is defined as a group of people who are bound together into a single body, through history, values, language, culture, art and religion. (Notably missing from this definition are railways. The British built theirs and still had to leave. But we digress.)

The development of an identity from state to nation is often not easy. National identity is often forged during national crises or challenges. As a psychological rule of thumb, when an entity is faced with a challenge and especially an existential challenge, their response will be a function of their identity. Therefore failure to form a strong and cohesive identity cripples one’s ability to respond to a challenge or crisis. By extension, a polity either rises to the challenges facing it or succumbs under these challenges, as a function of the polity’s identity. Failure to form a strong and cohesive national identity cripples a nation’s ability to respond to challenges which it faces.

Easily accessible historical examples of challenges forging national identities include the US Civil War (the challenge was slavery and secession, the identity response was democratic and constitutional deliberation) and the Cold War (the challenge was territorial and existential, the identity response was capitalist and expansionist). For Britain the destruction of the Spanish Armada could be said to have been a signpost in their national identity (this challenge was existential and their identity as a sea-faring nation was called upon) in much the same way as the Franco-Prussian war was formative for Germany (the challenge was France, the identity forged was conservative, capitalist and Protestant). The Hundred Year’s war was similarly a crucible for both England and France. Closer home, other examples have been discussed at length in the piece immediately prior to this one. Let us now dig into the crux of this argument.

Brothers or Children of a Lesser god?

In the aftermath of the 2002 election Kenya was officially the most optimistic nation on earth. To paraphrase one victorious naval commander, Kenya had “met the enemy and they were ours.” The subsequent political machinations that quickly soured into 2007’s post-election violence should serve as a signpost for any statesman on the path towards nation-building. President Kibaki’s 2002 win may have been significantly more marginal or even contested had Raila not said “Kibaki Tosha!”

Over and above that, Kenya’s first president, Kamau wa Ngengi aka Jomo Kenyatta, rose to that position after Raila’s father arm-twisted the colonial government into releasing him as a pre-requisite for national independence. The subsequent fallout between these two founding fathers has never quite been resolved since then.

In the wake of this fallout, the Luo community has had the worst of it on the ‘national’ stage. Key names that dot the landscape include Tom Mboya who was assassinated in broad daylight. An intelligent capitalist and political mobiliser if ever Kenya had one, Tom Mboya was responsible for the student airlift which gifted the world with America’s first black president. This was as a result of a fortuitous meeting in Hawaii between Ann Dunham and Barack Obama Sr. It is said that Ann Dunham fell for Luo nyadhi and then weaponised it into the political operative who stormed the White House. Another Luo great who is said to have fallen to ethnic strife was Dr. Robert Ouko. He exited the land of the living courtesy of a bullet to the head. In his final position as Minister for Foreign Affairs he so impressed George Bush Sr. that the sitting power structure felt sufficiently threatened by possible regime change.

It has further been said that should you visit the Turkana, Samburu or other Northern Frontier Districts, upon your departure to return to more beaten paths, these communities tell you to “Salimiana ukirudi Kenya.” Translated literally this means “Greet your people when you return to Kenya.” A more succinct way of communicating systematic alienation and under-development may not be found in our history. This systematic alienation of politically ‘light’ communities by successive governments was the result of development agendas based on cronyism and political tokenism. This skewed development is what necessitated our new constitution. It must be noted as an aside that constitution development is traditionally not a peacetime achievement. This should perhaps further underline the extent to which government budgets have been directed at arbitrary, non-national and tokenist targets.

This record must also note that this new constitution was an arduous labour of love which was fought severally by sitting governments. These included the long-drawn out process of the Yash Pal Ghai’s commission in 2000, followed by the bait-and-switch of the Bomas Draft and the Wako draft in 2005 and finally governmental lethargy in 2010. Even Kenya’s best president economically, Mwai Kibaki was against the 2005 Draft and only relented to political pressure by joining the Yes vote late in the 2010 Yes campaign. The heavy political lifting during this interminable process was carried out by one Raila Amolo Odinga. Wait, where have we seen that name before?

And finally there is the little-known and oft-overlooked fact that it was Jaramogi Oginga Odinga who pulled our 3rd president out of Makerere and installed him in the upper echelons of KANU in 1960. It must be noted that at this time Kenyatta was still in prison.  From there Kibaki took a brisk walk into treasury in 1963 and from there to the office of the Minister for Commerce and Industry in 1966.

In other African nations, such good turns are often returned in due course. By this I am referring to the curious case of Ghana. Ghana’s current president’s father paid the immediate former president’s tertiary education fees in Ghana and flight tickets for further education in Russia. As it so happens, HE Nana Akufo-Addo unseated John Mahama right in the middle of Mahama’s incumbency. What am I trying to say? In short that one good turn deserves another.

As we finish up, (lol) it should be clear by now that the nation of Kenya owes much to its Luo leaders if not its Luo people. Given that RAO and the Luo people have not appointed his successor, chances are that this bloc will splinter if Raila were to pass away (God forbid) without identifying his successor. And even if he did appoint his successor, chances are 90-to-10 that this successor will not be as widely accepted by the Luo people. Accordingly, and in the knowledge that we may not have the opportunity to repay these good deeds in good time, it would behoove us to repay the Luo people before the bloc splits. Otherwise there will be a lingering “ethnic debt” which happens to be a wedge in the identities of other African nations.

This brings us to my final questions on Kenyan nationhood.

  1. What shall we as the nation of Kenya do with this man Raila Amolo Odinga, who fought for our new constitution which is devolving funds to previously marginalised counties?
  2. What shall we as the nation Kenya do with this community whose brilliance is globally recognised and whose contribution to our political progress has perhaps not been sufficiently rewarded?
  3. Shall we continue to play exclusionist games of tag with our presidency?
  4. Shall we choose to define our national identity as inclusionist, or exclusionist?
  5. Or shall we continue to label certain communities as “opposition material?”
  6. And if we do so, the logical follow-on question is; if the Luo who we (partially) owe our new constitution (remember I said partially) cannot be rewarded for their contributions to our political progress, under what circumstances will the Samburu, the Turkana and the Masai ever qualify to be termed as Kenyan or worthy of Kenyan leadership?

Exactly what does it mean to be Kenyan?

 

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I Dreamed of Kenya

Image result for lion king simba mufasa

We know who we are but not what we may be – William Shakespeare

This post is a bit radical in that it draws from the history of other African countries and nations in the hope that their history will inform Kenyan choices going into elections next month. No nation lacks aspects of their history that are less than savoury and so this post might at times seem like pointing out the speck in our African brothers eyes. So to other Afro-centrists, please do not interpret this as a pharisaical prayer not to become like the publican. No this is standard African peer review. Hopefully of the type that spurs improved action and governance.

My central and persistent thesis in this election is that Kenya is at a junction in its history. This junction is fundamental and defining as far as Kenya’s national identity is concerned. The choice we make in 2017 will define how we respond to any challenges in future. Therefore we need to make a prudent decision. That being said, let us dig in by studying the histories of other African nations.

  1. South Africa

In South Africa in 2009 a frail, old Nelson Mandela went round the country campaigning for Jacob Zuma. The reason for this was that that Mandela is a Xhosa, same as Thabo Mbeki. Zuma on the other hand, is a Zulu and was the foremost Zulu in the ANC. Zuma was allowed to run on an ANC platform. There was a marginal Zulu grouping known as the Inkatha Freedom Party. At the time of the 2009 election the rhetoric surrounding the IFP was getting increasingly violent. This violence in my opinion was partially based on Zulu dominance a la King Shaka. Granted, the IFP only had marginal electoral support but if Zuma had not been voted in, the IFP would have gained legitimacy in the eyes of many Zulu who would have switched from ANC to IFP.

To come back to present day affairs, it is generally acknowledged around the globe, and within South Africa that Jacob Zuma has been less than ideal for South Africa. The generation that did not interact with the system of apartheid has no allegiance to the ANC. As a result Cyril Ramaphosa, another Xhosa, might be named as Zuma’s replacement. Neither the late great Nelson Mandela nor Thabo Mbeki were neophytes at nation-building. They must have known that Zuma was a less-than-ideal candidate. But like true statesmen interested in a thriving stable South Africa, it was politically expedient to do so. They also knew that as part of the elite, it was not their place to make that decision. This decision to turn away from the Zulu or Zuma had to come from the electorate itself. South Africa is now dealing with much more substantive political issues than ethnic rifts within the ANC coalition. Malema vs Ramaphosa is much more to my liking than Buthelezi Mangosuthu vs Mbeki, if you get what I mean.

Of what relevance is this to Kenya in 2017? For starters it must be said that advanced democracies are beginning to define democracy not only as “Everyone has their say” but also as “Everyone has their day.” This is why Mandela and Mbeki are not neophytes at nation-building and why Raila deserves the same benefit of doubt that Zuma received. It is my humble submission that a Raila presidency would not be as reprobate as Zuma’s. Moreover Kibaki’s Anglo-Leasing scandals should clear our imagination of any illusion that a Raila presidency will be all that and a bag of chips. For goodness sake, even this team digitalis finding it hard going. Application of the simple principle of accountability to the electorate at the ballot should be enough to weed out bad leaders by the ballot. Otherwise our fledgling democracy would not even be “government of the people, for the people, by the people.”

But the main point to be drawn from this history is that the call to shunt Raila and the Luo aside was not and is not one for our political elites to make. This decision should come from the electorate. 2013 gave us a golden chance to get over our ethnicity issues once and for all, but we spurned the opportunity.  Metaphorically speaking, we chose to continue marching around our mountain of ethnicity for another 40 years. As a result, our politics will continue to be identity-based instead of issue based for the foreseeable future.

  1. Nigeria

Once upon a time an astute analyst commented that Kenya and Nigeria were twins separated at birth. At first glance the similarities may appear to be superficial and hilarious, given our population sizes and mineral deposits, but you only need to drive in Lagos and Nairobi rush-hour traffic to feel the similarities. A closer look however reveals an uncanny resemblance.

Nigeria as a state was defined as balancing the requirements of three main political groupings, namely the Hausa-Fulani, the Yoruba and the Igbo. Perhaps to give a bit of background, The Hausa-Fulani are northern and originally more nomadic. The Yoruba are centred in the south-west whereas the Igbo are centred in the south-east. Also, you could almost say that the Igbo are the Kikuyu of Nigeria in terms of business and trade acumen while the Yoruba are the Luo of Nigeria in terms of being flashy, educated, white-collar professionals. Perhaps to stretch our analogy a bit to fill out the triangle, the Hausa-Fulani would be the Kalenjin of Nigeria.

Now as you would well know from history, the triangle is the least stable political structure of all. So much so that it is completely contrary to nation-building efforts to find accurate census figures of these three populations who are all scattered across Nigeria. Nigeria’s history and political discourse has to the best of my knowledge been dominated by the interactions between these three groupings. This triangle came apart during the Biafran War, an event which is still a political hot potato 50 years after its outbreak. Nigerian social media also regularly has heated and vitriolic tribal arguments much like Kenya. In short Nigeria’s national identity is yet to come to grips with the Biafran War.

Given Nigeria’s history, I have often wondered what greases and cools Nigeria’s political engine. And then it hit me, off course they have oil! And well, their unemployment is at around 14% compared to ours at 39%. So apples to apples, we both have political triangles. But apples to oranges Nigeria has its unemployment under the 20’s and oil revenues to boot. These are 2 luxuries we as Kenya do not have. This makes our economic policy making twice if not thrice as much in urgent need of solid job-creation.

Again we must ask ourselves, exactly how does this affect cocoa production in Ghana? For starters, this must not be interpreted as agitating for a secessionist Biafran or Luo state. Not at all. I quite like the Kenyan map and borders as they are. (Thank you very much for that question.) The point here is that, our political triangle must be recognised for the problem that it is towards building a strong cohesive Kenyan national identity. Our continued tribal bigotry will have consequences whether we like it or not. Attempts to bury our head in the sand about its existence, or offer stopgap measures without dealing with the problem itself will only further exacerbate a bad problem.

We could go on and on about how DRC in the 50’s had Africa’s largest middle class; and how Tanzania is ensuring local value addition of their minerals; or how our unemployment is a ticking time bomb which needs to be dealt with. But rather than make you read an additional few hundred words, we will stop there for now. It is my fervent hope and prayer that this ‘processed’ history of Nigeria and South Africa will inform our choices going into the election this August.

NASA Tibim!

Thucydides, Democracy and Africa

Bertrand Russell once said that one reads a book either to enjoy it or to boast about having read it. Thucydides’ History of the Peloponessian War (HOTPW) provides both reasons. For one the name Thucydides is very much in vogue currently as a result of the geo-political problem known as Thucydides Trap. This describes a situation in which a rising power and an established power are driven towards conflict by factors within and without their control.

But this book at the same time provides significant reading enjoyment. It gives numerous insights into human nature as well as military and political strategy. On numerous occasions he outlines both the immediately ostensible goals of a course of action as well as its ulterior and knock-on effects. His dissections of negotiations and parleys also provide a good measure of wisdom in how to analyse whether a proposition is beneficial for both parties involved in it or for only one party.

That being said, he acquits himself of his task of chronicling history admirably and in a balanced manner. He does this despite executing various duties as an Athenian officer in the course of the war. What is most troubling is how towards the end of the book Athens becomes riven by factions part of which contribute considerably to its eventual downfall from its lofty heights.

From these events, as well as from the general political climate globally, the question of whether democracy really is the best system of government for man comes into question. This question has been raised earlier on the blog.

Before proceeding I wish to point out that my ancestors followed a democratic system of government. I hail from Kenyan Meru stock. (There is Tanzanian Meru which is also Bantu.) So my ancestors happened to have some form of democratic system in which there were two sides of government per age-group namely the Kiruka and the Ntiba. Each ruled for a period of 7 years. During Kiruka rule the Ntiba would form some kind of opposition and vice-versa. During a change of guard market places would be uprooted, policy errors dissected and the litany of wrongs by the immediately preceding regime was generally denounced. This provided some sort of societal catharsis and cleansing. It was a unique system of government which even colonialists found remarkable, this deep within ‘the dark continent.’

This is not said in order to talk up the Meru people, but rather to make the point that this is not a reactionary view against the prevailing system of government globally. As a Meru, I respect my ancestors; as a Kenyan I respect the law; and as a child of the universe I hope to have the good sense to acknowledge a system that works well elsewhere. That being said, for all we know the OECD could well be the modern version of the Delian league. As can be seen from history, for the most part democracy works. So let us launch into its analysis.

Chief among the concerns that democracy addresses is the human desire for justice; both in terms of equitable governance and before courts of law. The concentration of power within a monarchical system makes it very easy for persons with access to the king’s ear (or hand or generally those close to him) to defeat the law, and in effect be above the law. Within a democracy, the judicial system sits outside the reach of the executive and (in theory) provides some form of check and balance to the executive and the legislature. The phrase “in theory” is bracketed because the nomination of Gorusch to the SCOTUS shows that in many situations the judicial system is very much a part of political rough and tumble. It is also for this very reason that presidential election petitions are overwhelmingly in favour of the incumbent, not just in Africa but globally.

In terms of equitable government, democracy makes an entity’s governors accountable to those governed. In theory this makes the governors pursue choices that are politically expedient, such as ensuring that proceeds from national resources such as say the Suez Canal, are distributed equally among all citizens. In practice and human nature being what it is, governors frequently seek to subvert this accountability by dividing and conquering the governed along whatever fault-lines are available. Once divided the citizens will vote for ‘their man,’ regardless of how equitably he has governed or how accountable he has been.

Another concern which democracy addresses is that it provides some pressure valve or ventilation so to speak on the geo-political system. When citizens are pre- occupied with their own leaders and elections, they are unlikely to start expanding their territory at the expense of their neighbours. Conversely, should one neighbour such as India see that a border is contested with say Pakistan, then it is in their interests to fund the Pakistani opposition or faction which would support their claim to the disputed territory. This was a move that classical Grecian city states used frequently as is accounted within HOTPW. 

On the flip side, democracy presents certain knotty questions which do not have straightforward answers. Most of these occur in fringe cases but eventually, in accordance with the law of entropy they will likely affect the socio-economic well-being of a political entity.

First and foremost is that democracy provides the means for factional interests to override national interests to the detriment of all. This happens moreso during times of crisis. For example towards the end of the Peloponessian war, Athens was politically and militarily paralysed by factions to such an extent that at some points had the Spartans walked in they would have easily conquered Athens.

A more insidious demerit is the assumption that citizens have the capacity to discern the best course of action. One underlying premise of democracy is that the (vast majority of) citizens are mature, informed and educated voters. Or to use psychological terms, the expectation is that voters are at the stage of post-conventional development. Out here in Africa, with poverty levels and unemployment rather high, this is a rather faulty premise. For example, when the USA was thinking through the issue of slavery, crowds would gather to hear Stephen Douglas and Lincoln debate on the issue. They would in this manner gain an informed opinion on the issues at hand and could be trusted to thereafter select the best course of action. In today’s multiplicity of media sources, sound-bite segments and photogenic politicians the voters are getting more and more opinions and less and less information and often alternative facts. In the even that a democracy is guided rather than direct, then the system must be engineered to make it so. Thereafter the system itself must be defended. This most illuminating piece by Jonathan Rauch points out where and how the American system was engineered as a guided democracy and dismantled into a direct democracy.

Last (that will be tackled here) but not least is a tangential result of the above problem. In many cases progress requires one to adhere to a temporarily disadvantageous line of action in exchange for a long term benefit. One of the best examples of this is the difference between India and China in economic progress. By virtue of the fact that Chinese political action is guided and controlled, they have the liberty to pursue a steady course of action for a long duration without fear of needing to appease disaffected or disgruntled voters. If they wanted to delay joining the WTO, they did. If they wanted to move populations into a city and farm maize on that land, they could. If they need to set up tariffs and incentives for domestic commerce they can. India on the other hand has had several changes in the direction of its commercial and economic policy. Sometimes the economically correct party was voted out of power. As a result India’s economic growth has to some extent been hindered by its political system of government.

A more extreme expression of this problem is that in today’s media-bombarded, instant-coffee, Ctrl+C-Ctrl+V generation delayed gratification is increasingly a hard sell. It wants what was advertised, and it wants it now. By this means democracy’s chief weakness is emphasised which is its tendency to result in massive debts, whose repayment results in widespread disaffection resulting in the rise of demagogues, fascists and tyrants. The irony of this particular problem is that Greece, which itself bequeathed the world democracy as a system of government, is currently reeling under the effects of imposed but necessary austerity measures after freeloading on the Euro for a while. On the flip side of this, Iceland which was also hard-hit by the effects of the 2008 recession, is set to vote in pirates and comedians.  But Iceland after following rather unconventional economic paths are currently on a solid footing going forward.

In summary, it should be clear that for all its merits, democracy presents loopholes through which the fabric of a political entity can be worn thin. As such these must be guarded against. But generally speaking one should not criticise without offering alternative solutions. The question would then arise, what really is the best system of government for man? I would propose a monarchy, specifically one under-girded by Mosaic law. At which point there would be a general hue an cry about how outdated this is. But that discussion on the perfection of Mosaic law can be left for another day.

The meaning of Donald Trump

“It’s unbelievable.”
In the wake of Donald Trump’s rise to what is simultaneously the best and the worst job in the world, ‘yuuuge’ introspection has been going on in national capitals, foreign policy think tanks, economic think tanks, by firesides, on social media, everywhere. How did we get here? When did the rain start falling on us? Dear God, please forgive us our sins and deliver us from evil…

It goes without saying that the effects of a Trump government/administration/regime will be widespread and far-reaching. For starters he will control the US’s arsenal of nuclear weapons from Jan 21st, so if Putin ticks him off cockroaches could be running the world 100 years on from now. Cockroaches are the only creatures unaffected by nuclear fallout. US generals have been researching the constitution to cross-check how much they have to obey his commands. US generals can be a handful. During the Cuban Missile Crisis JFK, JFK himself, was one day away from losing control of them. Bush 2 followed hawkish advice, plunged into Iraq, then ended up having a rather public dust up with these generals.
Across the pond, someone said that one could hear a pin drop in the capitals of Eastern Europe as US election results came in. Eastern Europe has traditionally relied on the Cold-War NATO doctrine of ‘an attack against one is an attack against all’ to stand their ground in the face of the Russian military juggernaut. This doctrine has been questioned by Trump on the campaign trail. And so it remains to be seen whether and how much he will stand by US allies should Putin extend his reach beyond Crimea. Angela Merkel, as close to a philosopher queen as Europe has had in a while, has quickly and quietly taken up the mantle of the defender of Europe. Increased patrols on the Russian border have been agreed upon beginning in early 2017. Joint air force patrols have become a normal thing in Scandinavian countries.

In Asia things are a bit dicier. China’s military budget continues annual increments, alongside construction of airfields in the Spratly Islands. To say that these islands are hotly contested is a gross understatement. Their very name is an issue and reflects where a person is leaning on the matter. Besides Ghina, Japan and the Philippines also claim ownership and control. At stake are massive underwater oil reserves, besides territorial control of trade routes. The problem with this issue is that it threatens to draw in two big powers into a contest of egos, prestige and credibility despite it not being a core concern for the United States. This issue, by extension, serves as a litmus test for US containment of Chinese expansionism in Asia. Duterte, who has presided over a massive anti-drug pogrom in the Philippines, has flip-flopped between US and Chinese allegiance but `looks forward to working with’ Trump. Other countries reading into this are South Korea (North Korea’s neighbour) as well as India and Indonesia. These are not small populations.

In the Middle East, Iraq and Syria continue to present conundrums to any and all think tanks. Non-interference means continued bloodshed and chemical weapon usage. Engagement risks snowballing out of control. Russia’s only aircraft carrier is in the Baltic Sea threatening Turkey and the Baltic States. Saudi Arabia and Iran are backing opposing sides. Turkey, no longer the ‘sick man of Europe,’ is taking advantage of this transition to create a buffer zone for themselves. In the process the Kurds are losing hope of an independent autonomous state. And after all that Syria’s shared border with Israel could always serve as a flashpoint for Arab-Israeli conflict.

‘Out here’ in Africa, the prospect of a Trump presidency presents both an opportunity and a threat. The opportunity stems from the West finally understanding how electorates elect known demagogues and what post-poll protests are. Also, Trump is unlikely to stand by trade treaties such as AGOA among others, greatly reducing African sources of foreign currency as well as denying a leg up on the economic ladder. Africa will be forced to trade with herself, something which she is absolutely not doing enough. The threat is darker. A Trump presidency officially calls into question democracy as a system of government for man. Besides that the platform on which Trump ran is likely to embolden repression of human rights and strengthen autocratic regimes. The fall of the Iron Curtain meant that the US no longer needed to prop up pro-West dictators. As such democracy had a field day in the early 90’s in Africa. So now we may be looking at the sunset of that day.

Globally also, climate change is fast becoming the biggest threat to societal stability. The polar ice caps are melting faster and faster, reducing their reflection of solar insolation as well as raising sea levels. This has knock-on effects meaning the said warming accelerates. In terms of human effect it means unstable weather, exacerbated food scarcity, increased poverty, emigration from coastal areas and so forth. Climate change has been one of Obama’s most understated and undersold legacy areas, both in terms of what he was able to achieve as well as how he achieved it. His accord with China on this laid the groundwork for groundbreaking global agreements on this. Trump is a patent climate-change denier and looks set to appoint an EPA head who is a staunch fossil fuel advocate. In his world it’s all ‘climate be damned.’ China’s Xi Jinping is now officially on record warning Trump not to backtrack on this.

Someone once joked that death had the wrong list earlier this year. And someone else later clapped back that they now understood why death had that particular list. Jokes and effects aside we can now look at the causes. How did we get here? In this context ‘here’ means both Trump and Brexit. Polling has officially fallen into disrepute as a valid source of credible information. The media also has culpability in this matter and continues to mix up signal and noise. Before we go too far, it must be noted that Hillary lost white counties that voted for Obama twice. The implication is that the US has been voting for anti-establishment candidates since Bush senior or junior depending on how you look at it. The media is getting the narrative wrong in the sense that it is spotlighting Van Jones whitelash theory and the entire alt-right as opposed to the simple and basic economic anxieties theory.

That being said, this alt-right deserves a special mention for the wrong reasons. Now the danger with close elections is that the extreme wing of the winning side mistakes their side’s win as a direct mandate for them. This is what is happening with the alt-right. In a year when Republican messaging and communication strategists shed tears at the official appropriation of ‘American exceptionalism’ by the Democratic party during the DNC, the Republican Party’s fired up base had rather different views on what makes America exceptional. This happened in a year when 6/6 of America’s Nobel Prize winners in science and economics are immigrants. The beneficial effects of immigration on demographics, the economy and innovation among others, cannot be overstated.
But looking further out, how do we correct our assumptions and mental models? What social and philosophical outposts accurately pointed in this direction? Who was previously discounted or overlooked but turned out to be right? The least recent predictions should carry the most weight. I will start with homespun thinkers.
1. Oyunga Pala, one of Kenya’s foremost and controversial writers on Kenyan masculinity wrote a think piece all the way back in August about how human nature is drawn to bad boys. It’s kind of like the way spiders mesmerise flies against their will and then eat them up. I will admit that spent a portion of my teenage years filtering Pala’s views on masculinity. Most importantly he contrasts Obama and Trump as being different responses to the call to manhood. One response is to be a good man a la Obama, the other is to be good at being a man a la Trump – screw norms, survive, reproduce, rule.
2. David Ndii has written an insightful analysis on economics going back to the 1800’s. In summary his take is that globalisation (and I might add neo-liberalism) has hollowed out the industrial cores of Western society. As such globalisation can now officially be critiqued for its long term benefit to the majority of society. Ndii references Samuel Huntington and Francis Fukuyama, those widely acclaimed historical sages, while outlining their conflicting theories for us. Most importantly he quotes an oft-hidden and oft-discounted tenet of free trade ideas. That free trade depresses wages in industrialised countries. He references Greece as an ironic twist of history.
3. Michael Moore predicted Trump’s rise in a widely quoted article. It covered very accurately the Rust Belt, the place of the older white man in modern day America, and of all things the schadenfreude of reality TV! It sure is going to be an interesting ride these next four (or less hopefully) years. I think it says something that it is Oyunga Pala and Michael Moore; ie men who have spent time analysing the male psyche; who saw his rise before the rest of us.
4. Noam Chomsky predicted the rise of a Trump-like figure 6 years ago. Chomsky is the most widely quoted and cited scholar alive today. His Wikipedia article says that he favours anarcho-syndicalism. He also tends to think that the Republican Party, by virtue of being climate change deniers is the most dangerous organisation in human history.
5. Peter Turchin is the closest thing to Hari Seldon from Isaac Asimov’s fictional series called The Foundation. Hari Seldon was a historian-and-mathematician who would feed historical data into mathematical models and produce socio-political predictions accurate enough to almost be 100% correct. Peter Turchin has written several pieces on societal development and decline. He predicts a reckoning within the American system around 2020. The factors which he aggregates are ‘elite overproduction’ expressed in terms of elite income and wealth gaps (idle rich gentry who then aggregate into camps with increasingly polarised positions), societal economic inequality and finally the stagnation/decline in living standards for the majority of a populace.
6. Naval Ravikant, founder of Angelist, wrote two prescient think pieces on the American democratic system. He describes a two-party gatekeeping system to the castle of the American government. The system functions by distributing or re-distributing prosperity or poverty as the situation dictates. It claims to serve the masses, but all too often benefits the elites. His pieces, especially American Fall, dovetail quite accurately with Hillary Clinton’s statement ‘apres moi la deluge.’ An interesting caveat on the system – some of the sentinels guarding this castle included mass media. But mass media’s monopoly on news, truth and public opinion has now been disrupted by social media, a truth borne out by the fact that Clinton out-spent Trump in swing states 3-1. Trump’s twitter handle as well as fake news on facebook were a ruthlessly effective counter-strike. Naval’s theory is also backed up by the fact that Obama was the first social-media candidate. Unfortunately for us Trump has been the second. Despite the best wishes of the gatekeeper system, direct democracy as opposed to guided democracy, has officially arrived.
7. Balaji S Srinivasan a partner at Andreesen Horowitz places the new divide at the growing gulf between the nation-state and technology. His theory postulates that the Westphalian nation-state has been eroded over time in much the same way that the ‘divine right of kings’ was eroded over time. Balaji also proposes that technology has been eroding the boundaries of nation states and what it means to belong to a political grouping. He sees the rise of the EU and Mercosur free residence agreements as an accelerating trend which may be replicated here in Africa. With time, the power of trans-national corporations could exceed that of nation-states. (Goldman Sachs vs Greece comes to mind.) Balaji poses the question “Who will be around in 2025, Google or the EU?” He advocates a book called The Sovereign Individual which was written by authors who predicted Wall Street’s Black Tuesday, the pending collapse of the Iron Curtain and the Yugoslavian War. The book states that we have moved from an industrial society to an information society.
And with that, the main theories concerning the rise of Trump have been covered. So we can finally cover my personal hopes and wishes in this whole matter. On the one hand I wish Trump brings up the birther issue and forces Obama out of America. Then Obama can come home to Kenya. Then we can elect him president, bigly! Then we can live happily ever after. My plan is so good, it’s the best plan, it will make everyone happy. Everyone tells me this. It’s unbelievable.

On Ngugi, Dylan, Gadaffi and the new Thai king

There has been typical social media outrage over the fact that Ngugi wa Thiongo did not win the Nobel Prize for literature. More to the point that it went to a musician and lyricist. Bob Dylan writes some good music man. The fact that Nobel has tried contacting him without avail is besides the point. I wanna weigh in with my perspective from early 21st Century Kenya. Let us hope that it does not sound like “Those grapes! They were so full of wrath!” lol

The source of art is conflict, whether internal or external. Someone once said a comparison of Swiss and Italian art reveals this dichotomy. The Swiss had peace for 500 years and it produced Swiss watches and chocolate. The Italians had 30 years of murder, warfare and violence and it produced Michelangelo, da Vinci and the Renaissance. On this basis, Chimamanda Adichie once rightly asked why we dont have Kenyan stories about the Mau Mau rebellion. Half of a Yellow Sun, arguably her magnum opus, is her candid perspective of the Biafran war. That is a portion of Nigerian history which is hard to resolve and which few people can revisit while accurately splitting hairs the way they need to be split. The same is true of the Mau Mau rebellion. The unfortunate truth of the matter is that history is written by conquerors. And out here, I still feel like it’s the home guards in power. In my opinion this is what has muzzled art on this topic. It takes an atypical personality type to produce art on this matter without attracting the wrong kind of attention.

Ngugi wa Thiongo is arguably Kenya’s most notable writer, either him or Prof. Ali Mazrui. I respect them. For goodness’ sake I have never written a short story, let alone a novel. So I doff my hat to him. The problem is his rendering of the Mau Mau rebellion is a bit too socialist. And I mean socialist in the sense that it emphasises ‘the movement’ over the individuals. In so doing it fails to capture the individual lives, the pathos, the dire straits and essentially the heroism of the Struggle for Independence. These were men and women who walked into forests with sticks and a sense of oppression. When they re-emerged they had handmade guns and a feeling of freedom. These were men and women who forfeited their comfort and lives to live in dark caves. They strategised, regimented, planned raids, procured resources, dealt with snitches, harried their enemy and basically conducted a war on wholly unfamiliar terms. They fought for their land, for their loved ones and for liberty among other high ideals. Shortly afterwards a State of Emergency was being declared here in Kenya and troops were being shipped in from places on and off the continent to contain the insurrection. It was not contained. Eventually the Union Jack was lowered and the Kenyan flag flew free for the first time – a new dawn for a new nation.
Now, a lot can be said about the fact that World War 2 was demographically draining for British society; that after losing the colonial crown jewel named India, there were no more resources left to run the other colonies; that America pressed for the liberation of the colonies. But let the signal not be lost in the noise, let the facts above see the light of day. Let it be known that those men and women who fought for Kenya’s independence were real heroes. Once when Idi Amin wanted to extend his coasts to Lake Naivasha one of those generals offered Mzee Jomo to go and deal with the man. They had sand, gravitas and character. In startup parlance they got stuff done. We have just come out of Mashujaa Day, or Heroes Day in English. That heroism is part of our national history and heritage. The ideals for which they fought must be striven for. It is this elevation of the best in the human spirit, the highlighting of the evils and the glories of human struggle that literature on the Mau Mau must capture. It is these notes which Ngugi wa Thiongo failed to hit in The River Between and Weep Not Child. And it is for this reason that I don’t think he deserves that Nobel prize. Yes he has kinky black (now grey) hair and all, yes I identify with him but… this is my opinion.

Which brings us to a footnote on this home guard business. Kenya emerged in 2013 from a bruising electoral cycle with a few unresolved strands, the monster of tribalism rearing its ugly head and some home guards back in the driving seat. Frankly speaking I did not vote for the current government and for a considerable while I was highly critical of it. Actually I still am. But after observing alternatives societies for long enough, I am convinced that we actually don’t have it that bad. Yes, our system is very uniquely flawed but it is not yet broken. And as the saying goes “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” This is not to condone mediocrity, corruption or the hundred and one things that ail our country. No, a hundred times no. We may think that we have it rough but there are places that have it much worse off. The main reason I say this is because we have an example to look to a bit further north, which is Libya. It may be an extreme example, but it fits the bill. Gadaffi may have been a bit off-kilter, and seriously unpopular in certain quarters of his country, but Libya under Gadaffi was orders of magnitude better than Libya today. Word on the streets is that housing was in order, water was not a problem (in that dry land!) and education was provided for. I hear refrigeration for newly-weds was also taken care of but that may be a bit of a stretch. Granted, we are not sitting on motherlodes of oil to facilitate such largesse but besides the social net they had peace.

The point that Libya’s history makes is that in situations where there is a 55%-45% split and the very legitimacy of a government comes into question, the presidency is a unifying figure. Mark I said the presidency, not necessarily the president. We laughed at the new Thai king in a tank top (watu wa 80’s ndio sisi) and carrying a poodle being saluted by generals, but I think we need to doff our hats off for the generals saluting him at attention. If ever there was a lesson in there for us it is this; respect the seat, even if you didn’t root for its occupant. I think the point that must be raised in honour of those generals is this; of the leaders among that splintered 45% in Libya, who is unifying the country now? This is a hard gospel to take, and I say this with utmost respect for the opposition here in Kenya, based on gaining the new constitution and toppling Citizen Moi. We haven’t dealt with our African eminent personalities homework and so we still have too much steam in the system. We must tread carefully and practise how to live together as many peoples in one nation.

The story is told by Paulo Coelho of two brothers who lived in Ancient Rome in the time of Emperor Tiberius. One was a poet and the other a soldier. The poet achieved instant fame because he wrote delightful poems acceptable to the day and the times. The other brother was a soldier, a toughie who fought wars in distant lands. One night the father of the two sons had a dream in which an angel appeared to him and told him that the words of one of his sons would be learned and repeated throughout the world for all generations to come. Later he asked which of the sons that was and the angel told him it was not the poet, but rather the soldier. And the soldier’s words were “My Lord, I am not worthy that you should come under my roof. But only speak a word and my servant will be healed.” The point made by that story is that everyone plays a central role in history yet normally does not know it.

Time is ephemeral. History has sides. Let us tread on the right side of history.

The Brain Trust

So on New Year’s Day, I found myself trawling the interwebs looking for some inspiration. It’s just that sometimes, as Eminem would say, “You’ve gotta find that inner strength… and get that motivation…” So I ended up reading this interview given by Charles Townes to Achievement.org. Charles Townes is the scientist responsible for the invention of maser, laser and outer space exploration via radio frequency analysis. It’s a very remarkable interview by the Nobel Prize Winner. He was also part of the overview team for getting Neil Armstrong onto the moon in 1969 and has provided advisory support in SALT talks. Seeing as 2014’s KCPE results had recently come out, it got me thinking about a particular gap in our education system.

We are seriously under-harnessing our best and our brightest.

The critical success factor for nations nowadays is what we might call the brain trust, ie the skills and intellectual firepower that can be marshalled for any given issue. It is said that Germany has an annual meeting of about 300 economists every year who debate the policy requirements of the nation. It is no wonder that they own Europe. In short, if we are to fully take advantage of our resources and the opportunities around us, we must harness the brain trust available to us. There is biblical precedence for this. Israel’s tribe of Levi were their lawyers, judges, health scientists and advised kings and governments.

There is a very interesting link on Quora on what life is like for very intelligent people. Quora is a site which crowd-sources answers, experience and expertise. As one person put it, “You go to Google to get an answer. You go to Quora to get a response.”  Many respondents on that particular question went to schools for gifted children. This is very useful because one answer points out that while normal people have trouble figuring things out, geniuses have trouble fitting in. So this kind of environment, ie schools for the gifted, is a safe environment for them to nurture their gift instead of burying it in the sand. Otherwise all their brainpower could easily go to waste cooking up mischief and so forth.

There was an article somewhere on the interwebs about a young fellow who graduated post-doctorate from MIT at the tender age of 16 or so. And is allowed to meander around campus and do his own research. That is important. A fellow like that has difficulties relating to the rest of us lesser mortals. Big Bang Theory certainly makes that clear to us. (God bless their souls!) A fellow like that may produce only 2 papers in his life, but would be of ground-breaking scope similar to Einstein’s e=mc^2. The sooner he produces those papers the better 🙂

Brain drain is real.

Case in point is Equity’s Wings to Fly program, especially the part used to airlift Kenyans into American universities. The architect behind wings to Fly is one exceptional man by the name of Mr. C.S. Khaemba who was once the principal of Alliance High School (AHS). He mastered the art of getting students into Ivy League colleges, then exported this art to Equity Bank. Unfortunately for us, a statistically significant number of our best and brightest always flew out to the States to pursue studies and ended up staying there. In 2008 for example the number one at AHS was an absolute genius called Sammy Sambu. Sambu was never defeated in academics in high school. The only time this happened, he had been out on an exchange program in the US for most of the term. The following term, he was back at the top. He went on to become a Rhodes Scholar, has completed his Master’s studies there and might be part of the faculty of either MIT or Harvard (as I ponder the meaning of my life lol).

Another example of this brain drain is another old boy of AHS who studied his undergrad in either Boston or Philadelphia. He must have studied cryptography or the like because from there he went on to work at either the Pentagon or the CIA. Nowadays when he visits his mother he arrives unannounced. He cannot tell his mother that he’s around. I must say that sounds like an interesting life. (Ding dong! Haiya ni wewe!)

There was a class-mate in high school with whom I used to spar intellectually. (Not Sammy Sambu!) We singled each other out as personal hate-figures on the basketball court in the very first month of high school! Such competition can be healthy. He had been to a Montessori school early in his education, while I had spent a portion of my childhood buried in Nancy Drews, Hardy Boys, a few encyclopaedias and so forth. So upon entering high school, our level of exposure to the outside world was a tad higher than the majority of our classmates. The point here is that his early training made a difference in him. As we speak he is an aspiring polymath in the US. His contributions will likely benefit the US more than Kenya.

Once upon a time I managed to get some significant face-time with our associate pastor, who is a very widely travelled man. He told me he has routinely met with Kenyan geniuses who look back on 20 years of research in foreign lands and so forth. One told him with tears in his eyes that he wished he had developed the motherland. The 2 founders of KEMRI were other old boys of AHS who realised that they could do much more for their country by coming and building a medical research institute that caters to the needs of a tropical environment and so forth. Kudos to them.

This is not to say that Kenyans living outside the country are wrong in any way. As a child of educationists, I can authoritatively say Moi’s disdain for matters academic or progressive was a serious encumberment.  I would definitely not have minded a more conducive environment for academicians and educationists locally.

In his book Invention, Norbert Wiener discusses how ground breaking inventions and innovations come around. There has to be a conducive environment for this kind of thing. Universities, research and development budgets, intellectual discussion forums and so forth. As a son of generations of educationists, I know that a considerable portion of the blame for this sad state of affairs lies in the mismanagement of education under the Moi regime. Kibaki in his characteristically quiet way swiftly went about correcting this, licencing myriad universities.

Recently, India managed to get a space mission in orbit around Mars. On a shoe string budget. This tweet captures the poignancy of that moment. I don’t know whether that gets your hamsters running upstairs, but really, Africa should be staking a bit of a claim in this kind of action. One thing I admire about India’s educational system is their Institutes of Technology. India’s Institutes of Technology boast lower acceptance rates than MIT or Harvard. That quality is not wasted. IIT’s graduates are so skilled that a lot of the world’s research and development work is done in India.

In the grand scheme of things, universities are ideal for basic research of the type where e=mc^2 comes from. Polytechnics on the other hand should be churning out technologists who can compete globally in any industry. Peter Drucker is on record that America’s competitive edge is its technologists (polytechnic graduates). I guess nowadays its real competitive advantage might be fracking. But there’s a reason why I am saying this. China’s population is so large that the number of geniuses in the country is almost equivalent to the number of students in the American tertiary education system. China’s geniuses, ‘force-multiplied’ against China’s R&D budget, which is fast approaching America’s, can only have one outcome in the long run.

For example, we have recently seen technological innovations that enable greenhouse agriculture devoid of soil. Instead of soil there are plastic granules which do not absorb water. While this technology is being hailed as a recent breakthrough, it has been in use in China for the past 10 years. Another example of this gap is that a number of young Kenyans are studying medicine in China. I happened to speak with one such graduand and she told me that she ‘discovered’ a herb that grows wild in Western Kenya which is very useful in the fight against either diabetes or prostate cancer. These examples just go to reinforce the fact that the technological differences between China and the US need to be analysed and understood for our own benefit.

Off the top of my head, here are a number of changes which we need to see in our education and technology system. Some are cost-effective while others are more cash-intensive.

  1. Some basic respect for intellectual property would help. For example software cannot be patented in Kenya. This is wrong.
  2. Universities should create partner programs with the best and the brightest. Rwanda’s Carnegie Mellon University and Dubai’s New York University come to mind.
  3. We should beef up our National Academy of Sciences both in terms of mandate and muscle.
  4. There should be tax breaks for Research and development as well as tech-heavy investment. Pharmaceutical research for Africa should be centred here in Kenya. We import a disproportionate percentage of our drugs whereas we could be keeping those currency flows in-country.